Search results for "Probabilistic programming language"

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Spatio-temporal modelling of COVID-19 incident cases using Richards’ curve: An application to the Italian regions

2021

Abstract We introduce an extended generalised logistic growth model for discrete outcomes, in which spatial and temporal dependence are dealt with the specification of a network structure within an Auto-Regressive approach. A major challenge concerns the specification of the network structure, crucial to consistently estimate the canonical parameters of the generalised logistic curve, e.g. peak time and height. We compared a network based on geographic proximity and one built on historical data of transport exchanges between regions. Parameters are estimated under the Bayesian framework, using Stan probabilistic programming language. The proposed approach is motivated by the analysis of bot…

Statistics and ProbabilityCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Computer scienceNetwork structureGeographic proximityCOVID-19COVID-19; conditional auto-regressive; Stan; generalised logistic growthManagement Monitoring Policy and LawConditional Auto-RegressiveCOVID-19 Conditional Auto-Regressive Stan generalised logistic growthStanEconometricsIndependence (mathematical logic)Bayesian frameworkComputers in Earth SciencesLogistic functionProbabilistic programming languageSettore SECS-S/01 - StatisticaSettore SECS-S/01generalised logistic growth
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